The Baylor Shakedown

Most observers believe Baylor’s actions have made the first option, saving the Big 12, less likely rather than more likely.  The Big 12′s ability to attract 1 to 3 additional schools seems to be severally damaged by Baylor’s posturing.  Which means Oklahoma is more likely than ever to leave the Big 12 and essentially kill the conference.

Likewise, Baylor’s attractiveness to other conferences is diminishing hourly during this standoff.  Will the Big East or Mountain West be eager to invite a school that appears to not play well with others within its conference?  Baylor doesn’t bring the cash like Texas does and money is the only reason any conference puts up with bullies.

So, the only reason left is the reason why most things happen: money.  So, how much money does Baylor want and how will all of the schools involved ever agree upon an amount?

The clue about the amount of money in question comes from the timing of Baylor’s change of heart about letting A&M go.  The moment Oklahoma started talking about leaving (and crushing) the Big 12, Baylor got defensive.  Why?  Speculation is that if the Big 12 dies, then there are not any exit fees.

Last year, Colorado and Nebraska paid in the realm of $9 million each to leave the conference.  Current estimates put A&M’s exit fees anywhere from $14 million to $30 million dollars.  That is not chump change for any university, and certainly not for a school of Baylor’s size.

Now, imagine if A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas all had to pay exit fees?  For simplicity sake, let’s assume they  paid $10 million each.  That’s $50 million dollars to be divided up between Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri (the Baylorettes).  Or, $10 million each at a minimum.

Ah ha.  Now things start to make a lot more sense.

Baylor has one thing of high value right now.  It has the ability to sue the schools that abandon the Big 12 and the conferences that “raid” from the Big 12.  Baylor probably doesn’t want to get involved in expensive litigation anymore than the other schools do.  But the right to sue is something Baylor owns and a good lawyer doesn’t give up something of value for nothing.

There may be more money on the table than A&M’s exit fees.  Just a year ago, Colorado and Nebraska paid roughly $18 million dollars to the league to leave.  In a pre-arranged deal, A&M got more than their share of that money.  It would make sense that Baylor and the Baylorettes want that money back too.

Finally, there could be future considerations to send some money Baylor’s way via promises to play future games.  Obviously, A&M can’t agree to play all 5 of the Baylorettes every year.  So, this could get complicated.  But if you spread out games over a 10 year period, you could bring some future cash to these schools long after the Big 12 is dead and buried.

Of course, if this were just a negotiation between Baylor and Texas A&M it might have been worked out already.  But the Baylorettes want their share as well so they must negotiate with at least five schools.  And Baylor isn’t going to let Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas walk away without dumping their pockets too.  So, these negotiations are likely to be a very tangled mess.

Eventually, it will get sorted out.  A dollar amount will be found that makes everybody happy enough and everybody will move on.  Until then, emotions will continue to run high and blame will continue to be thrown around.  I’m just waiting to see how much money it finally takes to buy away Baylor’s litigation chip.